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If I remember correctly, 80% (normally pretty high) of PNMs get there top choice on Pref day. This DOES NOT mean your top choice after open house. Your top choice normally changes as you get to know chapters more. 15% (pretty low) of PNMs will not join a house for one reason or another. Some drop the process and some don't get bids. Very few PNMs don't get a house if they go all the way through the process. If you do not suicide bid and maximize your options on pref day you are guaranteed a bid from a chapter.