What is the likelihood of actually getting a bid?

The likelihood of getting a bid is over 90%, but most girls who don't get bids voluntarily drop out of the process from getting discouraged with the houses they get back. There are always a few pnm's who are completely released, just a few, because they really didn't rush well, but they often can get a COB or come back and go through again the next year and do well.

If you go to the pref round and rank both your houses, or just the one if that's all you have, you are guaranteed a bid. If you decide to SIP and don't get a bid you can try for a COB or wait for formal again next year. If you sign your card and get a bid, it is binding for a year, so if you drop you will have to wait until next fall for another chance at a bid.