what are the odds kappa will do informal in fall

This is accurate unless a lot of girls from between now & the fall, which may be a red flag (may have too high of dues, bad sisterhood, problems, etc).

I don’t foresee this being the cause, but if Kappa is doing informal, it will likely be for one of these reasons.

I would expect them to do informal... They need the recruitment practice. All new chapters need to keep their numbers and energy high. They lose seniors and others due to dues, family issues, retention, etc.

The original commenter is right. Never expect newly founded chapters to do informal. Their nationals set them up to avoid it. No recent chapters (Gamma Phi or Zeta) has and I don’t see that happening with a strong base like Kappa either

This is probably more true for schools like OSU than for other universities. most schools I know have their chapters take an informal class after colonization, and the hope is once the chapter goes through their first formal recruitment, they don't need to COB anymore. Kappa, especially being headquartered in Columbus and having been on campus so recently, probably knew exactly the right number to take in order to not need to do informal, but it's not at all unusual and even expected for colonies at other schools.

Kappa will likely not have to do informal. Very very unlikely, as they had such a high interest going in and will continue to have strong national support. Any girl who went Kappa knew the dues and time commitment required.

However, that's not the case with every school. IDK what chapters you've helped colonize at other schools, but let's take Theta's new colony at GWU (this is meant as no hate against Theta here, since obviously every chapter at every school is different). They came on a couple years after one of GWU's top chapters got kicked off for hazing. They initially wanted to recruit up to total with their colony, but only got 88 members, whereas total was around 120. Some girls dropped/transferred and they were well below total when it was reset in the fall. They had to do COB in the fall and got 9 members, then in formal in the spring took a full PC but still did COB after that. It really does depend on the school, because with a school with a greek life like OSU, it's way different from a city school with a smaller greek life that's transitioning from fall to spring formal recruitment.

Thank you for explaining the way colonization works in terms of recruitment. It’s refreshing to read some posts that actually educate instead of insult!